Thursday, 8 March 2012

A Statistical Observation

Gallup's U.S. Underemployment Rate, Monthly Averages

     El Gringo Viejo is a fairly good minor league social demographic analyst.   This is due to a bit of his studies at university.   The Gallup group, in its analysis of the labour market, has always been very thourough.   Their political polling has been manipulated at various times by their tendency to purposely overweight consumers, leftists, Democrats, and "minorities" in its samples.   While these tactics tend to skewer the results in favour of Democrat candidate instead of reflecting the opinion of the composite universe under consideration, it is still reiterated that their system for measuring the labour market is perhaps the best in use to-day.
     The government statistical derivation process  uses an arcane, adjusted, subjective, interpretive process that can be manipulated by the judgement of the polling interviewer.   It allows for the "dumping out" of "inconvenient" data.   That is how, two months ago, the poobahs decided to dump 1,500,000 out of the labour force, thereby determining that since they no longer existed, they could not be un-employed.    They had simply been unemployed "too long".   Heck, who knows...maybe they're dead.   Maybe they were carried off by a sasquatch.   Or worse, maybe they were carried off by Barney Frank and Janet Reno.
     The Gallup group does daily and rolling sampling.   The 30,000 sample is more than adequate for a universe of up to 500,000,000 members, statistically speaking.   So, if a right-wing crazy like the Gringo Viejo says that you can better trust Gallup than the once a month, weekly compilation being averaged up every month as practiced by the government, you can.   Are you going to trust a government product or a private sector product?   Normally one should trust the private job.   This is a good time to trust the private company.

Gallup's U.S. Unemployment Rate, Monthly Averages

Now, the rest of the Gallup report will be buried tomorrow by the MSM, so simply be aware that the unemployment rate is sharply on the increase.   The combined numbers of unemployed and those who are working part-time and searching for full-time positions is once again at the 20% level.   This does not count an estimated 8 to 10 million people who have drifted out of the universe of employment.
     This is troubling to the extent that it is not even good news for El Gringo Viejo as something that will damage the Obama re-election effort.   It would be preferable to beat Obama simply because he is an America-hating marxist.    These employment figures make someone think that the economic observers, even on Fox Business Channel, are singing in the upstairs bar on the Titanic.  All the financial channels are convinced that happy days are here again and that the economy is on a hot doggity roll, bubba!   Like Yogi says, "I think they've been smoking Geitner's and Bernacke's Kool-aid.

El Gringo Viejo