My hands have been full with having to do as little as possible concerning our family's medical involvement. My biggest contribution is to pull the overnight shift of sitting in the hospital room and to therein do either nothing, as little as possible, or stay out of the way. Sometimes, the Old Gringo answers the telephone or something equally energetic like going down to the little dining area on the first floor....(approximately 4.6 miles from the room)...and other such challenging contributions.
Looking over the infrared Gulf of Mexico loop and the land-based northern and western Gulf of Mexico coastal radars' loops....it seems fairly obvious that the mother of Tropical Storm Lee is moving just slightly south of due west. The center of the circulation is adjacent to the convection on the east side of the circulation, which is fairly common with storms that organise suddenly in the Gulf of Mexico.
Upper and middle level winds have relaxed in their push to the northeast, even to the point of lightening and changing direction to the opposite vector. This would leave the storm...it is definitely a Tropical Storm at this writing, with little steering elevation imperatives, with an inclination to move to the West. This is something that is urgently needed for the parts of Texas that would be affected for such a path...so read on this same screed during the day as the Old Gringo attempts to help readers with his pontifications and divinations.
End of first advisory.
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After a couple of hours of monitoring, it is the Old Gringo's notion that this is, for now, a nocturnal storm and not diurnal. More development will occur during the nighttime hours. It is also nearly stationary. It is also gathering strenth, albeit slowly.
Official discussion says that upper level currents are stronger on the east side, providing good outflow, while on the west side there is more turbulence and less definitivity about guiding winds. The Old Gringo sees this upper level anti-cyclonic as feeble and withdrawing to the southwest. Should that southwesterly withdrawal become de riguer, then The Old Gringo will have more confidence in saying that a quickening drift to the west can be anticipated.
If the southwesterly withdrawal does not take place....then his bets are that it's 1/3 to the northeast, 1/3 to the east....essentially to follow Katia....and 1/3 simply staying in place, slowly dispersing, and causing widespread showers over most of the Northern Gulf Coast and Western Gulf Coast, but casting showers over much of the Mexican Coastal waters, including possible re-enforcement of Instability from the northwestern Caribbean.
End of second advisory
11:42 am
01 September 2011
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The link above is about a wealthy Congresswoman....a Nancy Pelosi clone....but from Connecticut. More evidence that George Bush is guilty of everything.
The Tropcial Storm Lee, as imagined is trying to decide whether to bifurcate, intensify, or degenerate. There is a fiery banding in the dense convection on the east side of the storm that would indicate that it will intensify if it can make it into the nighttime. It has expanded in coverage to the south, west, and north, and moved erratically to the north a little, and then to the southwest . Tonight, the Old Gringo will write more. There are a few issues with the family medical situation which will need attention....it all is rather much intertwined.
Thanks for your time.
End of third advisory and discussion
15'15 hours
2 September 2011.
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There seems to be an improving circumferential outflow throughout all four quadrants of soon-to-be Hurricane Lee. The "dry side" is gaining moisture, oddly enough, from the upper levels, moving in from Mexico from Pacific origins. The key here will be the mysterious "mind" of the Storm itself during the night. The longer it dawdles in the center of the Gulf of Mexico, the less predictable it becomes. Historically (which matters naught to any specific hurricane) these systems want to go to the west or to the northeast.
Keep tabs on Weather Underground's infrared Gulf of Mexico's readings during the night and early morning hours. The Old Gringo shall be at the Hospital, and there are no facilities where he will be to be making observatjions or updates. The Government of Mexico has issued a marine Warning and coastal Tropical Storm Watch f9r the northeasternmost coast of Mexico.
More later.
End of fourth advisory and discussion
17:24 hours, 2 September 2011
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The Old Gringo is back from the hospital at around 08;00 on Saturday Morning. My reading of the data available and the review the the SatRads show that the northwestern part of TS Lee is moving to the west in to East Texas....hopefully with significant rain, although large amounts are not expected....And, the eastern part built up nicely in the Gulf over night and is training into the heart of Dixie. The center of circulation remains over water, so lessening of strength will be slow to occur. There is no wrap of convection, with drier air entering from the Texas mainland, and the possible reinforcement from the west and southwest has stalled and even retreated, bringing heavy rains to the west central and cetral parts of Mexico.
Therefore, the system should be monitored, but at this point it will bi-furcate, with the eastern two-thrids of the convective mass moving to the northeast, and the western third of Tropical Storm Lee gradually playing out....unless remnant circulation re-fires during the night to-night. Such a probability is unlikely, given the absence of the intrusion of moisture and energy that had been approaching from Mexico. That's what it looks like from here.
This is the last advisory on this screed. New commentary will appear in new postings.
09:00 3 September 2011
