Saturday, 3 September 2011

Should Have Waited A Bit..Additional commentary added on Sunday, 4 September 2011 In the early morning hours.

The Old Gringo's duties at the hospital distracted his view and study a bit.   The bifurcation referred to in Hurricane General Lee, was a classic Confederate Cavalry deception.   Mosby's Ghost is riding in the Storm.    The lower circulation of this storm has become dominant and is moving almost due west along the Gulf Coast.    Heavy rain banding is blessedly affecting  the easternmost part of Texsas and with the continued guidance of Providence might reach far into the soul of Texas.   This has been an interesting little storm.
     You are all left to your devices, the Old Gringo is going back in a little earlier to the hospital
to-day, and the OROGs will have to guide its progress.
More later, thanks for visiting
El Gringo Viejo.
      After reviewing the maps, SatRads, and other data, it seems very clear that the bifurcation analysis was totally correct.   Still, this storm's 2nd vortex continues to circulate just south of the  the Sabine River's mouth to the Gulf.    Convection, although feeble, continues to fire up as far south as a latitude that runs east and west through Brownsville, Texas.   The more energised eastern element of this peculiar (not for the Gulf, though) little storm continues to make its sweeps of Dixie's Land, while the "crazy aunt" keeps knitting doilies in the northwesternmost corner of the Gulf of Mexico. 
      This might speak to a failing, if anything, of over-reliance upon forecast computer modelling.   Ground, radar, and satellite readings, coupled with a couple of old Mexican Cowboys and an Indian medicine man might do better.  That said, there were two of the modellers who suggested this particular situation....even to the point that the storm would possibly regenerate in the northwestern Gulf starting on Sunday and/or Monday morning very early.    To this observer..even with the little remnant "lost vortex" spinning around still, there seems to be a lack of energy supply to permit such an occurence.
      The Old Gringo had hoped for greater accumulations in East Texas, and for a deeper penetration into the rest of the State, but perhaps something may come of the cold air mass moving across the upper half of the State at this time.   Perhaps a bit of friendly friction between Continental Canadian and Maritime Tropical can get the action underway.
More later...we still have the hospital thing....
El Gringo Viejo
08:20 4 September 2011