Wednesday, 26 October 2016

A Brief Statement Concerning the Polls....


    This is written more as an Old Jewish Lamentation than anything.  But, it is written for those who might need what very little guidance your humble servant can allow from his shallow intellectual resources.

     We have designed and implemented, on the spur of the moment, polls that were deadly accurate for local, county-wide races.   We have participated in the construction of polls that were designed for districts (Congressional and otherwise), and Statewide for important Republican PACs.   Without fail, we hit within 1% in each case.

     One thing that we never did....and assiduously avoided....was to "overbalance" a cohort of the universe being sampled.  Neither pro nor con.   Almost all of the generally referenced polling groups being cited by the obsolete press and its 1st cousin, FOXNews, are doing "driving polls" which are designed not to plumb opinion but to change opinion.  Some do it intentionally, others do it just because they are pinko to the root and cannot, in their charity, seem to approve of anything that represents retrocession from the Progressive Religion.  

     Finally, please remember that there are only three polling groups that are doing things as they should be done at this time.   One is pinko, the LATimes.  Another is a private service, Rasmussen, that made a strategic mistake in calculations last time,   But they have since amended their procedures in a way that I approve...their methods have always been excellent, but last time their methodology had an Achille's Heel that was very small, but which skewered the results slightly, but significantly.  Then there is the Investors' Business Daily "TIPP" poll, which has nailed the past three Presidential elections almost to the tenth of a per cent.

     All of the above show the race essentially tied, within one per cent, between these two horrid candidates. Each of them cause both my Union and Confederate ancestors to absolutely whirl in their graves.   But we shall advise all that only these three should be used for a betting reference or for the calm of thy soul.  As the day draws nigh, all of the polls will narrow,  because the "opinion forming polls" will also want to be "accurate polls" at the end, so that they can tout their value for the next election. 

     Los Angeles Times tracking poll, gross raw entry, daily, no over-processing or unnecessary filtering.   Rasmussen, very complicated, multi-level attitude assessment, Rolls-Royce quality administration and analysis, some reasonable tinkering, very reliable.  And then the Investors' Business Daily poll which is, simply stated, stunning.   All, in my not so humble opinion in this discipline....rate a 99.9%.

Rendered with sincerity.
El Gringo Viejo