Friday, 10 August 2012

Wierd Fox News Poll? (Amended 21:46, 10 August 2012)

El Gringo Viejo has had a bit of experience with polling in the past.  His training and much of his university level education was involved with the obtaining and analysis of social demographic information and attitudes.

The most reliable general polling instrument available to the reasonable public at this time is, of course, the Rasmussen.   At one time Zogby did well, but then began to politicise itself into virulent anti-Israeli contortions that had a bad effect on outcomes.

Of the "mainstream" type polling groups, only Gallup makes the least effort to be anywhere near accurate.   They tend to move towards full accuracy towards the very end of a campaign cycle.   Polling groups such as Quinnipiac, Pew, PPP, and therefore the Real Clear Politics polling average are off from 5 to 8 percent by the end of the campaign.

Therefore, when Fox News aired the Obama 49 - Romney 40 poll to-day, it was immediately rejected by this observer because it flew in the face of yesterday's posting of the Rasmussen projection of  Romney 47 - Obama 43.     That calculation is almost exactly the reading of to-day's Gallup analysis.   Interestingly, Gallup tends to poll more into 'all registered'  whereas Rasmussen relies on samples of those who seem most apt to vote.  This time they concurred.

These figures, by any historic standard, are catastrophic for an incumbent president.  Rasmussen's analysis of "strongly in favour"  of Obama as opposed to "strongly opposed" to Obama's policy leaves Obama in a   - 16  (negative sixteen) deficit.   Catastrophic.   Only about 25% of the voting population is remotely interested in "defending the parapets", while almost 50% of the voting population is adamant about driving the marxist and his handlers out of the White House.  Once again, we repeat, and in neither personal nor politically motivated terms, these figures are unprecedented in a re-election bid for an incumbent president.  They are catastrophic.

So, El Gringo Viejo must only assume that someone within the FOX News operation is pulling FOX New's chain, or their polling agency is pulling their  chain, or the execution of the poll was done incompetently.    It is very, very difficult to play outrider to both Rasmussen and Gallup to that extent without suspicion being raised about the competence, or intent, of the FOX News polling agency's ability and/or motive.

Thanks for your attention.
El Gringo Viejo



Aug 7-9, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change
Presidential Election
7-day rolling average

    Our statement above that the Gallup Poll showed that the voter's disposition breaks out at 46 to 46.   My error in stating in the original article that Romney was ahead.  My thinking was probably stuck into the Approval / Disapproval figures of  43 Approve  -  51 Disapprove.     Both the disposition and approval numbers in any regard, for an incumbent president, are catastrophic.
     Also, please note that the employment number shows a decrease, while the underemployed and unemployed both showed significant increases over the past three day period polled.   Economic confidence figure, according to responses by Gallup, shows a net negative impression of the economy of  -30, which would translate to 65 /things are bad to 35/things are okay.   Catastrophic for the president.

Thanks for allowing this correction and for having patience with my sloppy work.