Wednesday, 4 July 2012

It just dawns on a person, suddenly

    We were going over various of the reports on the election in Mexico, and it dawned on El Gringo Viejo about why he might have miscalculated more than a bit.   Tamaulipas is the State wherein he resides.   Although it is a "border State", it is in many ways like what the rest of Mexico, outside of Mexico City, looks like.  It has many faces, many geographic backdrops, and even subtle but definite ethno-racial differences within its boundaries.
     One thing it has been since the Revolution of 1910 - 1917, is a "reasonable centre-left" State, and part of the approval group of the Partido Revolucionario Institutional (PRI).   During this last campaign, we were surprised to see the massive amounts of  Partido de Accion Nacional (PAN) propaganda on the streets, walls, and radio/television.   Rallies and other campaign events were heavily and heartily attended for the PAN.    To us, removed on the northeastern corner of Mexico, it seemed like the lower-middle sector of the female population, plus the predictable PAN voter was going to unite and maintain the PAN in charge of the compound of Los Pinos (the Mexican White House) in Mexico City.

     Oddly, that is what did actually happen in, around, and all over the State of Tamaulipas.
So, for the first time since the founding of the PAN in 1939 was that the PAN presidential candidate actually carried the State.   Only three States voted for the lady candidate...Nuevo Leon (a solidly PAN stronghold), Guanajuato (birth of the party, centre of the Cristero movement, and solidly PAN..primordially conservative State),  and Tamaulipas, one of the strongest strongholds of the PRI in Mexico.
     There were a number of States that were within one percent up and/or down between the three candidates.    Low turnout of PAN "militants" in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sonora, San Luis Potosi, Jalisco, Campeche, and Yucatan sealed the deal for Josephina.   But....she carried Tamaulipas.   Very Strange.....but upon contemplation, it make sense.   The people were very appreciative of the Army's and the Naval Infantrys' contributions during the past five years throughout the State.  Supposedly, according to the word on the street, the new administration is committed to maintaining the same kind of pressure in Tamaulipas that the present administration has done.   We shall see.   As a rule of thumb,  in the old days, the PRI would commit to do something and achieve the objective about 40 - 50 percent of the time.  The PAN's record is more like 75 to 85 percent...and it would be higher but for Pelosi-like demagoguery and obstaculation in Congress.

     Anyway....that was it .   The error is mine.  The assumption that we could extrapolate the intensity of support in Tamaulipas into the resulting vote in the rest of the country was obviously a bad assumption.

El Gringo Viejo