Saturday, 11 February 2012

So That You All Will Know....This Is Serious

As most of the OROGs know,
     The Gringo Viejo said that Josephina Vazquez Mota would win the PAN primary.  She did.  Now she goes up against a formidable opponent who is an intellectual lightweight, but backed by the old mossbacks of the old Official Government Party, the PRI.   She will also face the lunatic  AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) who will give us everything for free and punish the people who have too much.     The Old Government Party candidate is all but a dumboe, but he is a pretty boy who has married a soap opera, telenovela queen, and has sufficient private resources to support seven illegitimate children. He also has three mansions, in different places, and has spent most of his time in the United States in spite of having had to be bothered with the duties of being Governor of the State of Mexico, which lies adjacent to and to the west and north of the Federal District.    This time it is Pena Nieto/PRI with a significant lead, and Vazquez Mota of the PAN in the middle again, but with poor AMLO/PRD way behind and fading.   El Gringo Viejo has conjectured that the party faithful are going to vote the way the party faithful vote.   The wild card is the female vote among the lower-middle class.   My bet is that they will gradually move towards the conservative party standard bearer, because she is what that large body of industrious, busy-body type, educated and usually competent in two or three skills...look to for an example for their children.  Vazquez Mota is what they would like Mexico to look like...not Cuba or Venezuela (AMLO) or like a soap opera full of bored, indolent, rich people who are famous for being famous....who play the roles of people who play roles in telenovelas.   The women are famous also for being waited on hand and foot, shopping, and make-up, and of course, shopping.   Some are also famous for wearing out mirrors and cellular telephones....and for being waited on hand and foot  (Pena Nieto).

    It is happily reported that the predicted falling of Pena Nieto and the predicted steady rise by Vazquez Mota, has begun.

FXWire Pro Headline | February 9 2012 3:58 EST

Gap between Mexican presidency rivals narrows slightly - opinion poll by Consulta Mitofsky

  • Mexico's ruling National Action Party's Josefina Vazquez Mota narrows gap with his rival Enrique Pena Nieto from opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party - Opinion poll by Consulta Mitofsky
  • But still opposition's Nieto holds a commanding lead with support of 40.4 pct
  • However, the gap has narrowed to 16.4 percentage points, with backing for Vazquez Mota now standing at 24 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from a Jan. 24 poll
  • AMLopez Obrador, of the Partido Revolucionario Democratico, has 17.2 pct, far different from his slightly more than 50 pct at this time during his last run for the presidency six years ago.   His percentage, like Pena Nieto's, shrank fractionally after the completion of the nomination of Vazquez Mota for her to lead the conservative National Action Party.

More later.   Thanks for your time and patience.
El Gringo Viejo