___________________________
(1) Some days back Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) declares that he agrees that Mexico can and should help restrain the crowds of unqualified "migrants" striving to gain the system in terms of passing across the Mexican / Texas frontier and continuing on to their hidey-holes in the various dark corners of the United States of America.
The Secretary of Foreign Relations, Marcelo Ebrard, toned that down a bit, suggesting that Trump is beating a demographic-political drum for domestic political reasons and adding, extraneously that ,"We, Mexicans are great neighbours…there are one-and-a-half million Americanos living in Mexico who have chosen Mexico as their home."
Then Trump declares that he is going to shut down the border next week, and that he is not kidding. He even threatens that he will keep the border "...closed for a long time". Trump also states that the Mexicans have done nothing to stem the tide.
It is painfully obvious that Trump knows very little about what is going on, say in Tamaulipas, the State adjacent to McAllen, Laredo, and Brownsville, and where the bulk of the invaders are invading and committing the purposeful sham of declaring the need for asylum in the United States of America. The route from McAllen / Reynosa down to our little adobe hut in the middle of NoWhere, Mexico is about 240 highway miles…I drive it frequently.
The military presence along the route is massive. Presently there is an overall deployment of over 9,600 heavy infantry from the Army and from the Naval Infantry…both bodies are engage frequently in detaining and literally combatting the cartel people. There are casualties aplenty. Thankfully, our team escapes with very few soldiers killed and very few wounded. Most of the casualties are with the cartel people.
One problem the military has is they have restrictive rules of engagement now, very similar to the American military. Another problem is, of course, that our side has to take extra caution concerning collateral damage among the populace…their lives and pertinences.
The Federal Highway Patrol is ubiquitous, perhaps two or three patrol units every 10 miles. And now, there are deployments of a new armed force, the National Guard. This group will be used to maintain permanent presence in areas with serious problems with the Cartels and with "migrants" who are swarming into Mexico and quite frequently committing numerous crimes as they slither to the north. The Guardia Nacional will be more of a permanent group, not an auxiliary as in the case of the United States and/or Israel.
So that the OROGs (Order of the Readers of the Old Gringo) will know, there is little stock taken in the notion that the next "caravana" will be the Mother of All Caravanas…with 20,000 people marching to the north to gain their fair share of free stuff from the Gringos. And, frankly, what they cannot gain for "free", they will steal, and make no doubt about it.
But, no one is suggesting that there will be that many people. Truth be known, more people arrive independently in two's and three's and five's and six's than by the hundreds and thousands as a cohesive group. The reason we have this crunch at this time is because the word went out that the Mexican military is everywhere and they will be distracting the Cartel people. Also the cartels are apparently dedicated to the idea that working and co-ordinating with the competition is not an alternative…the job is to kill the other cartel guys. That lay of the land helps the "migrant", whom I style as the "invader" because they are not migrants, they are invaders.
So, we find ourselves with a conundrum. When there are several thousand real-live military and competent police in Tamaulipas, the Centroamericanos reason that it's a bit safer and surer to travel on a nice common carrier autobus at reasonable prices, en lieu of paying some cartel boss 2,500 dollars to "guarantee" delivery to the "otro lado (other side)". All but a 50 - 50 chance of being ripped off or held for additional money (like ransom).
(2) THERE IS A "SECRET SOLUTION":
The fact is the Mexican military could be used effectively in the area of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a narrow waist-band of a geographic phenomena that could restrain hundreds of
thousands of people with the deployment of 30,000 troops. Regarding the map to the left, one can see the green line drawn between the Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche to the north and the Pacific Ocean to the South.
The entire breadth of that line is 125 miles. There are few highways, though they are high- mediocre to excellent nowadays, thereby facilitating rapid 1st Class or even deluxe bus transport through channels that can be supervised by military and illegal immigrant control fairly easily. About 50 per cent of that line moves through territory that is prohibitive to extremely difficult or impossible for "migrants"to transit. Canyons, heavy jungle, many mountains requiring almost the skill of Alpinists serve to provide a hazard zone folded into a labyrinth.
Culturally, the main problem is the Central American. Criminality is not something that can be disregarded. It is not something people can say,"Let's not discuss that because it could be offensive to some of the Central American people." Please understand. El Salvador and Honduras are hell-holes of depravity. Guatemala is a bit better and it has a relatively sedentary, traditional Mayan Indian population that seems to live in a form of prosperous poverty. But there are Guatemaltecos who fall for the siren's song of striking it wealthy in America.
It is estimated that 10% to 15% of the felonious parties in Mexico are from Central America. Nicaragua is soon going to join the triad of "bad-boy countries". Perhaps they will have to be a quadrad soon. And before the reader declares that the Centroamericanos can pass themselves off as Mexicans…please discard that notion. In almost all cases it is much simpler even than an American knowing that he is speaking to a Canadian because the Canadian says "aboot" instead of "about", and because Americans do not say "Eh!?" at the end of every phrase and sentence. (American juveniles and adolescents do say "Huh?" more than any other deceitful response or grunting.)
But, the Central Americans have very different accents from Mexicans. They also use different sentence constructs and they have different facial expressions and postures when speaking. Mexico has several dialectic and accent zones but there are broad similarities amongst the 130 million Mexicans. The Central Americans have dialectic and accent differences by the kilometre almost.
And for those looking at the simplicity of simply going around the military wall in the south by taking little boats at night or whenever and landing to the west of that line, there is a bit of impediment; the problem?
For instance there is a town on the coast there with the name "La Ventosa (The Windy Place)" where winds blow almost incessantly and unpredictably. Wind speeds just off-shore can be sustained at 30 miles per hour with gusts to 50-plus miles per hour just as a matter of the norms. And…there is no real "windy season", it is pretty much a matter of the juxtaposition of the Bay of Tehuantepec and the elevations of the mountains that conduct cold, falling air in the upper-level easterlies. It goes on all the time, almost. It is one of the reasons there would not be a lot of folks making and "end-run" via the Pacific Ocean on their way north.
More later,
El Gringo Viejo
(2) THERE IS A "SECRET SOLUTION":
The fact is the Mexican military could be used effectively in the area of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a narrow waist-band of a geographic phenomena that could restrain hundreds of
thousands of people with the deployment of 30,000 troops. Regarding the map to the left, one can see the green line drawn between the Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche to the north and the Pacific Ocean to the South.
The entire breadth of that line is 125 miles. There are few highways, though they are high- mediocre to excellent nowadays, thereby facilitating rapid 1st Class or even deluxe bus transport through channels that can be supervised by military and illegal immigrant control fairly easily. About 50 per cent of that line moves through territory that is prohibitive to extremely difficult or impossible for "migrants"to transit. Canyons, heavy jungle, many mountains requiring almost the skill of Alpinists serve to provide a hazard zone folded into a labyrinth.
Culturally, the main problem is the Central American. Criminality is not something that can be disregarded. It is not something people can say,"Let's not discuss that because it could be offensive to some of the Central American people." Please understand. El Salvador and Honduras are hell-holes of depravity. Guatemala is a bit better and it has a relatively sedentary, traditional Mayan Indian population that seems to live in a form of prosperous poverty. But there are Guatemaltecos who fall for the siren's song of striking it wealthy in America.
It is estimated that 10% to 15% of the felonious parties in Mexico are from Central America. Nicaragua is soon going to join the triad of "bad-boy countries". Perhaps they will have to be a quadrad soon. And before the reader declares that the Centroamericanos can pass themselves off as Mexicans…please discard that notion. In almost all cases it is much simpler even than an American knowing that he is speaking to a Canadian because the Canadian says "aboot" instead of "about", and because Americans do not say "Eh!?" at the end of every phrase and sentence. (American juveniles and adolescents do say "Huh?" more than any other deceitful response or grunting.)
But, the Central Americans have very different accents from Mexicans. They also use different sentence constructs and they have different facial expressions and postures when speaking. Mexico has several dialectic and accent zones but there are broad similarities amongst the 130 million Mexicans. The Central Americans have dialectic and accent differences by the kilometre almost.
And for those looking at the simplicity of simply going around the military wall in the south by taking little boats at night or whenever and landing to the west of that line, there is a bit of impediment; the problem?
For instance there is a town on the coast there with the name "La Ventosa (The Windy Place)" where winds blow almost incessantly and unpredictably. Wind speeds just off-shore can be sustained at 30 miles per hour with gusts to 50-plus miles per hour just as a matter of the norms. And…there is no real "windy season", it is pretty much a matter of the juxtaposition of the Bay of Tehuantepec and the elevations of the mountains that conduct cold, falling air in the upper-level easterlies. It goes on all the time, almost. It is one of the reasons there would not be a lot of folks making and "end-run" via the Pacific Ocean on their way north.
More later,
El Gringo Viejo
___________________________________