Monday, 5 November 2012

Yes. El Gringo Viejo Will Go on the Record...

We shan't shrink from the obligation of going out on a limb.   The OROGs have the right to know that El Gringo Viejo is not a direct decendant from Merlin.  And, El Gringo Viejo has done more than his fair share of patting himself on the back about what a great social and demographic analyst he was and is.

     Therefore, he shall give all OROGs his best impression, after going into the internals of 10 major polls, and relying on guidance from the Suffolk, Gallup,  and Rasmussen since we are more familiar with.  and trusting of their methodology.   Even when there is divergence concerning methodology, as we frequently have with Gallup, we can undertand and reassemble their tendency to oversample the Democrat probable turnout.

     We are estimating that Romney will carry the Republic of  Texas with 59% of the vote.

     In terms of the vote as it occurs in all 57 States and the District of Columbia we see this result:

                                                              Romney/Ryan          -           55%

                                                              Obama/Biden           -           45%

Far from being concerned about being out of step with the conventional wisdom, we think these figures might be a slight bit low on the side of support for the Romney / Ryan ticket.

We see the GOP pair carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania, albeit narrowly.   The entirety of the Confederate States will go to Romney / Ryan as well as the border States of Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, but not Maryland.

There is a remote chance that New Jersey will fall into the Elephants' Corral.  There is a good chance that New Hampshire will go for Romney / Ryan.

Electoral College vote:    Romney / Ryan    -     +/  -       320

                                           Obama  /  Biden   -     +/  -       230

We must hope for the restoration of the Senate to the hands of the Republicans and that said Republicans can resist the temptation to be "reasonable and bi-partisan".   Secret note to moderate Republicans.....Choose between submerging in the Titanic slowly or steering around the iceberg.   There can be no moderation when dealing with Juries that will be   composed of Robespierre's partisans.

If we are right or wrong, we shall see.  This is how I genuinely see the outcome.   During the McCain/ Palin wake, we had it exactly the opposite.    Obama 55 and McCain 45.
  We judged the outcome of the 2010 elections in error by coming in 2 Congressional seats low for the Republicans and 1 Senate seat low for the Republicans.
     We also predicted that Ted Cruz would destroy his Country Club -  Moderate Republican in the primary contest for United States Senate, who outspent Cruz by 10 to 1.  Cruz is the one of the very, very few people to have ever won a Republic of Texas - wide election on his first try.

Pray for the Republic.
El Gringo Viejo