Friday, 15 June 2012

Mexican Presidential Election Update and Analysis

A bit of prologue is in order.   The reporting in the United States has been dismally poor concerning the topic of the elections in Mexico.   Reporting in the United States about almost everything is in a fairly dismal condition.   This bit of information is given as an update to our previous analysis about the issue, along with a bit of self-critique.

     To begin, our assessment has been pretty much dead on.   The biggest surprise is that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has managed to lag behind, then surge, and now slide back, showing a peculiar "wave action" among the electorate for and against this somewhat deranged, narcissistic Trotskyite.  It always sounds good to say that the poor people need help and that there should be more "income redistribution", but after the sun comes up the next day, and everyone comes back to their senses, most people really, really know that "income redistribution" is not a workable socio-political solution for anything.

     We were also somewhat surprised at the viciousness of the intellectual left in Mexico and internationally against the National Action Party's (PAN) candidate, Josefina Vasquez Mota.   Joining in the piling on has been the old Dinosaur capitalists of the old official party, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI);  these would be people associated closely with the  Televisa entertainment group, and people of the type, resources, and connections of someone like Carlos Slim.    Intense, prolonged, and concentrated efforts have been made to denigrate the woman at every turn.

     The candidacy of the old official party's nominee, Ernesto Pen~a Nieto, the ex-governor of the State of Mexico, has wobbled and stumbled.   It has been propped up by glossy, pablum television ads, and marked by pointless, rambling speeches built of platitudes.  It has been suddenly and severely damaged by relentless news stories about massive corruption having been committed by PRI governors in Coahuila and Tamaulipas States, including collusion with cartels, with some connection being laid at Pen~a Nieto's feet.   He and the now disgraced previous governor (and his  chief subordinates) of Coahuila were closely allied in recent years during internal PRI politicking.

Lopez-Obrador (left), Quadri, Pena Nieto, and Vasquez Mota

     The PAN candidate has had a few contretemps, especially in the earlier part of the campaign, but has hit her stride in recent days.   In spite of what is written in FOX News - Latino, she was overwhelmingly seen as having won the debates that were held in Guadalajara a few nights ago.    This was a unanimous decision of the entire press and among polling groups.  Newspapers such as La Reforma, Excelsior, ABC,. Milenio, and even the television commentators pointed out that she had "taken it to them", leaving the "boys" standing sheepishly as she lashed out at their preposterous statements and records as well as some of their associates.

     The fourth-ranking candidate, perhaps appropriately named Quadri, did not make much head-way in the last debate when he resorted to asking his opponents for help about what some of the points of his platform had been.    Shades of Governor Perry.   Quadri is a likeable sort, not the fire-brand radical one might expect as the head of a confederation of leftist parties.   He will not receive more than four percent of the vote, in all probability, and many of those will be in the vein of votes casted for "none of the above".

Latest rankings:

                                              Pen~a Nieto                                 36 - 39%

                                              Vasquez Mota                             31 - 33%

                                              Lopez Obrador                            27 - 29%

                                              Quadri                                            3 -    4%

     We have been surprised that the normally very reliable Mitofsky poll has stubbornly insisted upon showing Pen~a Nieto with up to 45%, and is considered an outlier.    Other historically reliable polling groups have been agreeing with the assessment that the most fervent voters....those most likely to vote...are the Vasquez Mota supporters, and this portends a close outcome, unless some of the less dedicated Lopez Obrador voters change sides again and go to Vasquez Mota.    All agree that Pen~a Mota has steadily lost backing during the past three weeks especially, and that his voters are the least ardent.    So, we may be treated to a perfect storm on the 1st of July, next.

Thanks for your time and attention.  More later.
El Gringo Viejo