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There is a bit of pre-ambulatory stuff, after all it is Mexico. After the news is through with you-all it would be reasonable that you, as a OROG, would believe that Mexico is something between Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Dresden and all is not lost...or perhaps it just that all is not there.
Please be aware, the Mexican thing is still alive and well, with lots of problems, but with many more solutions.
We enter into this campaign period, however, with the ever present menace of a doddering ball of bilge who combines television ad company ideas with Bernie Sanders, the Ortega Brothers of Nicaragua, Che T-Shirts, upside - down American and Mexican flags with chicken poop smeared on them, and chanting Zombies demanding this or that "NOW!!!!". We refer, of course, to our ever present, and sexennially registered candidate for the Presidency of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Known affectionately as "that crazy old commie fool", "worthless demagogue", and other such terms of endearment, he is also the favourite of the university intellectuals, the students whose recent brain scans produced reams of empty blank frames save for a few images still of Pamela Anderson and her grandchildren playing on a beach in Cuba and pictures of a Can o' Bis festival in Sacramento where a transgendered hippopotamus who had just divorce his/her refrigerator had decided to marry himself and a unicorn in a Reformed Islamic Atheist Cosmic Reality Church service.
We must also remember the one key element in any AMLO campaign for President. This is the third, and like the other two, this is the one that will finally free the poor and force the rich to render their stolen wealth and feed the oppressed and force the openning of all borders (except Mexico's) to the deprived, starving masses. These are the "starving masses" who still seem to have enough energy to become "great with child" and aim for the "free medical" services in Mexico, and failing that, the American emergency room, where a child can be born a DACA and not a human-being girl or boy baby.
AMLO is quick to point out that the United States is a kind and gentle place, but that it needs to
understand that it must "share the wealth". It is simply not fair that so few have so much and so many have so little. The ones who stole the "much" must now learn how to share just a little with those from whom so much was stolen.
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| Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, leader and nominee of the Movement for National Renovation (MORENA) |
Then we have Pedro Anaya Cortez (referred to as "The Kid" because he looks for all the world like a 10th grader wondering to which university he should apply). In my opinion, he and his posse foolishly made a pact with the leftist Partidio Revolucionario Democratico (PRD) which in almost all respects is counter to the Anaya's right/centre Partido de Accion Nacional (PAN) which genuinely eschews government intervention," partnershipping" and such.
It is actually a true conservative party. The PRD is a true socialist democratic party, and they are on the ballot on the same column, as the alliance. It would be, rather much, like the Republican Party in America uniting with the Green Party and the Socialist Labour Party in order to avoid Hillary and Michelle running for a Peace and Freedom agenda party.
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| Ricardo Anaya Cortez (PAN), who would be at home, were he an American or Texian, in the country-club or right wing crazy section of the GOP, either one. Very intelligent, and uncommonly forceful. |
The one good thing, perhaps, is that the PAN and the PRD have very, very, very few corruption scandals in the districts, States, municipios, and affairs under their control...very few.
And now those areas under "minority control", chiefly by the PAN, are wondering what to do with all the left-over budgetted monies (a wry, but true political joke). When there are normal or somewhat normal accounting procedures used, lots and lots of public improvements can be finished in 18 months instead of 18 years. The PRD has...similar...but not exactly up to the same level, results as the PAN in terms of using public money honestly.
Next up is the essentially "Lebanese candidate", a truly nice guy, but in this case representing
the old Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) which ruled Mexico from 1919 through 2000 with an iron hand, covered with a velvet glove during the latter stages. His name is Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena.
Since the year 2000, the PAN has had significant control both nationally and locally, although they narrowly lost the presidential elections in 2012 to the PRI and Ernesto Pena-Nieto.
Ernesto, and especially his wife of telenovela fame and wealth, started high and fell into the basement quickly after that squeaker of an election in 2012. This has made the attempt to reinstate the pride and privilege of the PRI by stringing together of another 70 years of political hegemony and inter-group backscratching into what is quite probably an impossible mountain to climb this time around.
The presence of Meade, on the other hand, is a strange "odd man out, odd man in", because he has served in two different governments, on PRI and the other PAN, and received applause from local, national, and international groups. There is none of the tittering gossip about private lives, or set-asides of great wealth that have plagued other PRI candidates, save for Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de Leon and Miquel de la Madrid Hurtado.
The PRI's candidate has the surname Meade due to the fact that his grandfather came to Mexico, I would imagine, in the pursuit of something to do with brews and spirits and business investment. He intermarried with a Lebanese girl who had come over during the disorders in the Holy Land during World War I, and by contracting various presentations of her mother's surname and father's surname, they came up with Kuribrena. However, if you were to wish to call out to him, you would say, "Sen~or Meade!!" Meade is a Nordic - Gaelic name more closely associated with the northern English pre-middle ages. Its meaning is associated with something like "beer made from honey" in most probable translations.
My own family had a great deal of involvement in Ireland back in the 1700s, but they were decided Manx and Anglo, deeply committed to the spirits and brews business...especially grains, and formulas and improvements...etc. Their surname and ethnicity was English. They were of the Anglos who moved into Ireland who were associated with grains, and spirits and brews. The Christian family from which this writer is descended has such people in his ancestry. They came into colonial America (Massachusetts and New Amsterdam / York)
As an aside, the upper levels of Mexican industry and to some degree, the political system, is involved and very intertwined with Lebanese and Jordanian and others of the Levant who came into Mexico during the period associated with World War I...(before, during, and after). Many came, bringing with them the little money they might have, but also the skills of the "business of the bazaar...or 'trade at any cost'".
They were usually members of Eastern Orthodox Churches, and adapted to the Roman Catholic nature of Mexico's religious complexion, as might an Episcopalian in Rome under similar conditions. Carlos Slim Helu', and Alfredo Harp Helu' (Carlos's cousin), are two billionaire "Arabs"(in the Mexican vernacular and reckoning) who actually made their money by speculating in the Mexican Stock Market, frequently trading their small inheritances into Mexican industrial stocks until finally a peso turned into many billions of pesos. As this ethnic group has prospered in Mexico, and elsewhere, they have also waxed numerous and probably compose 600, 000 desendents or so in these times.
It might surprise many OROGs, but I have no negative opinion of Mr. Meade. Were he to win, it would be good...were the PAN candidate to win it would be a bit better for me...but the issue of AMLO is one which gives consternation to all foreigners, structural conservative thinkers, and upper-middle and higher income and position people in Mexico...citizen and investor.
So now you know. The number one guy in the polls is AMLO, the marxist who believes that everyone should made the minimum wage of 23 dollars per day...and turn the lights out at 19:00 hours every night and that all people with considerable wealth need to be taxed at 90% of their overall wealth, annually. Imagine how long that wealth might last.
AMLO likes to point out that he was a very popular Governor of Tabasco, but no one is willing to also point out that Tabasco, during his regimen, became a shambles...in three short years. The neat thing is, everywhere in Mexico, the United States, and Canada, there is a leftist press that will applaud and magnify the name of anyone who damages the middle and upper classes. Those classes...skilled blue collar, professionals, white collar, born-to-wealth people, investors, and small and large business operators, lost considerably during the administration of AMLO in Tabasco.
The next problem with AMLO is that he is reluctant to use the military in the fight against trafficking of every indecent thing and horrid substance known to the human race. He speaks in maleable terms like how it is necessary to have counselling and understanding while people are selling 5 year old girls from Honduras into porno and prostitution and/or importing 2 or 3 tonnes of Red Chinese methaphetamines into and out of Venezuela to keep Maduro afloat.
The percentages shown above with the candidates (the only officially recognised candidates) were current as of 22 April 2018. Remember that this is Bloomberg, and we rely on Mitofsky, and are only using Bloomberg as an example of how widely samples and processing formats differ.
There are 37 different polling companies and groups working the Mexican election. We have chosen the Bloomberg, not because it is accurate, but because it is predictable. It you want the best one, try the Mitofsky, which although birthed by a lefty, has attempted over the years to be loyal to its own procedure, which is good, and comes in very, very close to actuals at the end of the hunt.
The Bloomberg is also good in the sense that one can count on the most left-wing candidate always having greater approval. The overall methodology and, at least, the striving to do a good and true analysis is also a characteristic of the Bloomberg polls.
What we point out here, is that the last two times AMLO ran for the Presidency, he began with a bit of a groundswell...and to be sure, it appeared as though he had won the right to the Throne even before the vote had been casted. But as the "official" campaign period began, in both cases (2006 and 2012), AMLO's share of the vote began to diminish somewhat steadily.
My perspective is that the percentage AMLO is showing now is his high-water mark. My surmission that he will settle at or around 33 per cent of the total vote. The two lowest candidates will probably wind up losing almost all their followers, and Meade will not be able to mobilise much more than what he is showing in this and other soundings.
Anaya might well have a midnight meeting in McAllen or San Antonio with Margarita Zavala de Calderon (wife of the PAN President who served from 2006 - 2012), and even ex-governor of Nuevo Leon (Monterrey area) Rodriquez and offer whatever emolument, concession, or other legitimate enticement to join the battle, "...for the good of Mexico!!". It will be interesting.
What is certain is that a majority of the people are opposed to AMLO, but a plurality, especially at this moment, is not. These percentages are as of 25 April 2018. It might be of some encouragement to the Anaya group that the last two days of tracking in the Mitofsky poll showed AMLO losing 2% and Anaya gaining about 2.5%, leaving the standings at (According to Mitofsky) AMLO coming down from 31.9 to 30.2 and Anaya coming up from 20.8 to 24.0...even Meade picked up on AMLO by rising from 16.9 to 17.9 .
So, one can be certain that these next few weeks are going to be interesting. Battleground States, battleground cities...it will be a grand exercise of Mexican democracy only practiced for the last 20 years or so, after the PRI's throat-clutching choke-hold on the voting process and vote counting mechanisms from 1920 until nearly the turn of the last century.
Presently, all the PAN-type people are storing up wines, beers, and spirits because of the LEY SECA! It reads, translated for the OROGs thusly for our area at the Quinta and the entire State of Tamaulipas:
States which enforce the dry law for the full 48 hours (from the first minute of the Saturday prior to the elections until the first moment of the Monday following the elections) include Campeche, Coahuila, Colima, Sonora, Guerrero, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Jalisco, Tamaulipas and Mexico City.
And now those areas under "minority control", chiefly by the PAN, are wondering what to do with all the left-over budgetted monies (a wry, but true political joke). When there are normal or somewhat normal accounting procedures used, lots and lots of public improvements can be finished in 18 months instead of 18 years. The PRD has...similar...but not exactly up to the same level, results as the PAN in terms of using public money honestly.
Next up is the essentially "Lebanese candidate", a truly nice guy, but in this case representing
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| Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, candidate for the the Partido de la Revolucion Institucional (PRI) |
Since the year 2000, the PAN has had significant control both nationally and locally, although they narrowly lost the presidential elections in 2012 to the PRI and Ernesto Pena-Nieto.
Ernesto, and especially his wife of telenovela fame and wealth, started high and fell into the basement quickly after that squeaker of an election in 2012. This has made the attempt to reinstate the pride and privilege of the PRI by stringing together of another 70 years of political hegemony and inter-group backscratching into what is quite probably an impossible mountain to climb this time around.
The presence of Meade, on the other hand, is a strange "odd man out, odd man in", because he has served in two different governments, on PRI and the other PAN, and received applause from local, national, and international groups. There is none of the tittering gossip about private lives, or set-asides of great wealth that have plagued other PRI candidates, save for Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de Leon and Miquel de la Madrid Hurtado.
The PRI's candidate has the surname Meade due to the fact that his grandfather came to Mexico, I would imagine, in the pursuit of something to do with brews and spirits and business investment. He intermarried with a Lebanese girl who had come over during the disorders in the Holy Land during World War I, and by contracting various presentations of her mother's surname and father's surname, they came up with Kuribrena. However, if you were to wish to call out to him, you would say, "Sen~or Meade!!" Meade is a Nordic - Gaelic name more closely associated with the northern English pre-middle ages. Its meaning is associated with something like "beer made from honey" in most probable translations.
My own family had a great deal of involvement in Ireland back in the 1700s, but they were decided Manx and Anglo, deeply committed to the spirits and brews business...especially grains, and formulas and improvements...etc. Their surname and ethnicity was English. They were of the Anglos who moved into Ireland who were associated with grains, and spirits and brews. The Christian family from which this writer is descended has such people in his ancestry. They came into colonial America (Massachusetts and New Amsterdam / York)
As an aside, the upper levels of Mexican industry and to some degree, the political system, is involved and very intertwined with Lebanese and Jordanian and others of the Levant who came into Mexico during the period associated with World War I...(before, during, and after). Many came, bringing with them the little money they might have, but also the skills of the "business of the bazaar...or 'trade at any cost'".
They were usually members of Eastern Orthodox Churches, and adapted to the Roman Catholic nature of Mexico's religious complexion, as might an Episcopalian in Rome under similar conditions. Carlos Slim Helu', and Alfredo Harp Helu' (Carlos's cousin), are two billionaire "Arabs"(in the Mexican vernacular and reckoning) who actually made their money by speculating in the Mexican Stock Market, frequently trading their small inheritances into Mexican industrial stocks until finally a peso turned into many billions of pesos. As this ethnic group has prospered in Mexico, and elsewhere, they have also waxed numerous and probably compose 600, 000 desendents or so in these times.
It might surprise many OROGs, but I have no negative opinion of Mr. Meade. Were he to win, it would be good...were the PAN candidate to win it would be a bit better for me...but the issue of AMLO is one which gives consternation to all foreigners, structural conservative thinkers, and upper-middle and higher income and position people in Mexico...citizen and investor.
_________________
So now you know. The number one guy in the polls is AMLO, the marxist who believes that everyone should made the minimum wage of 23 dollars per day...and turn the lights out at 19:00 hours every night and that all people with considerable wealth need to be taxed at 90% of their overall wealth, annually. Imagine how long that wealth might last.
AMLO likes to point out that he was a very popular Governor of Tabasco, but no one is willing to also point out that Tabasco, during his regimen, became a shambles...in three short years. The neat thing is, everywhere in Mexico, the United States, and Canada, there is a leftist press that will applaud and magnify the name of anyone who damages the middle and upper classes. Those classes...skilled blue collar, professionals, white collar, born-to-wealth people, investors, and small and large business operators, lost considerably during the administration of AMLO in Tabasco.
The next problem with AMLO is that he is reluctant to use the military in the fight against trafficking of every indecent thing and horrid substance known to the human race. He speaks in maleable terms like how it is necessary to have counselling and understanding while people are selling 5 year old girls from Honduras into porno and prostitution and/or importing 2 or 3 tonnes of Red Chinese methaphetamines into and out of Venezuela to keep Maduro afloat.
AMLO, and his shadowy marxist "handlers" are drawn from almong the same people who foisted "Sub-comandante Marcos" onto the public awareness 25 years ago. They are also associated with the remnants of the socialist warhorse (also a twice-failed Presidential candidate back in the 1990s and the 2000 election) Cuahtemoc Cardenas, the son of the totally corrupt, socialist demagogue Lazaro Cardenas...the Great Expropriator (1938) of Mexico's foreign oil producing (and foreign) companies from Canada, Germany, Great Britain, Holland, and the United States. Cuahtemoc Cardenas and his father were sacred leftist cows of the old tri-partite Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI).
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ENOUGH!! Cry the OROGs...where is the BEEF??
Okay, okay...the deal is that we have heard on FOXNews and on MSNBC and on various news sources that, although the election is on 1 July 2018, we shall have to wait for the "run-offs" between the top two finishers in the Mexican Presidential contest in order to know who will command the Ship of State for the coming five year and 10 month term.
Yes, Virginia, the next term will not be six years, as is normal. A resetting of election and inauguration dates for the future will require that the next President be shorted out of his crack at the "...six year drunk followed by the life-time hangover". The new President will have to call the bar bill after five years and 10 months.
AND, LISTEN UP, FOLKS - There is no run-off in the Mexican Presidential, gubanatorial, or any such race for an executive such as a mayor or presidente municipal (city/county executive). Election leader with the plurality takes home all the tortillas in this game.
Yes, Virginia, the next term will not be six years, as is normal. A resetting of election and inauguration dates for the future will require that the next President be shorted out of his crack at the "...six year drunk followed by the life-time hangover". The new President will have to call the bar bill after five years and 10 months.
AND, LISTEN UP, FOLKS - There is no run-off in the Mexican Presidential, gubanatorial, or any such race for an executive such as a mayor or presidente municipal (city/county executive). Election leader with the plurality takes home all the tortillas in this game.
Now the prognostications: We show the leader of the pack, the venerable, and returnable, and perpetual candidate for President of Mexico, and if you don't like it, we'll close down all the major thoroughfares in Mexico City for six months after the election and cram the main plaza in the centre of the city with several hundred thousand people and freeze motor and foot traffic there as well. So there!!! We've done it twice, and we'll do it again!!
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46.6%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
MORENA 
27.9%Ricardo Anaya
PAN
18.6%José Antonio Meade
PRI
3.8%Margarita Zavala
Independent
2.8%Jaime Rodríguez
Independent
The percentages shown above with the candidates (the only officially recognised candidates) were current as of 22 April 2018. Remember that this is Bloomberg, and we rely on Mitofsky, and are only using Bloomberg as an example of how widely samples and processing formats differ.
There are 37 different polling companies and groups working the Mexican election. We have chosen the Bloomberg, not because it is accurate, but because it is predictable. It you want the best one, try the Mitofsky, which although birthed by a lefty, has attempted over the years to be loyal to its own procedure, which is good, and comes in very, very close to actuals at the end of the hunt.
The Bloomberg is also good in the sense that one can count on the most left-wing candidate always having greater approval. The overall methodology and, at least, the striving to do a good and true analysis is also a characteristic of the Bloomberg polls.
What we point out here, is that the last two times AMLO ran for the Presidency, he began with a bit of a groundswell...and to be sure, it appeared as though he had won the right to the Throne even before the vote had been casted. But as the "official" campaign period began, in both cases (2006 and 2012), AMLO's share of the vote began to diminish somewhat steadily.
My perspective is that the percentage AMLO is showing now is his high-water mark. My surmission that he will settle at or around 33 per cent of the total vote. The two lowest candidates will probably wind up losing almost all their followers, and Meade will not be able to mobilise much more than what he is showing in this and other soundings.
Anaya might well have a midnight meeting in McAllen or San Antonio with Margarita Zavala de Calderon (wife of the PAN President who served from 2006 - 2012), and even ex-governor of Nuevo Leon (Monterrey area) Rodriquez and offer whatever emolument, concession, or other legitimate enticement to join the battle, "...for the good of Mexico!!". It will be interesting.
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| This graph shows the standings as of the 18th of April...An up-date is available to the right of the graph |
So, one can be certain that these next few weeks are going to be interesting. Battleground States, battleground cities...it will be a grand exercise of Mexican democracy only practiced for the last 20 years or so, after the PRI's throat-clutching choke-hold on the voting process and vote counting mechanisms from 1920 until nearly the turn of the last century.
Presently, all the PAN-type people are storing up wines, beers, and spirits because of the LEY SECA! It reads, translated for the OROGs thusly for our area at the Quinta and the entire State of Tamaulipas:
States which enforce the dry law for the full 48 hours (from the first minute of the Saturday prior to the elections until the first moment of the Monday following the elections) include Campeche, Coahuila, Colima, Sonora, Guerrero, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Jalisco, Tamaulipas and Mexico City.
The elections take place during a 12 hour period on Sunday. Almost immediately there will be press reports about how AMLO is declaring that precincts are not up and running in the high probable AMLO strongholds and AMLO has proof that PAN and PRD goon squads and PRI thugs and terrorists are closing down precincts and access to voting, especially to women, minorities, the crippled, deaf, and blind and the poor...and the children.
Last time, there were such announcements and reporters hurried over to one of the grief-stricken casillas (precinct polling places) inquiring about the goon squads and thugs...only to be advised by the workers, who were busy processing voters, that turnout was heavy and everything was in order.
Last time, there were such announcements and reporters hurried over to one of the grief-stricken casillas (precinct polling places) inquiring about the goon squads and thugs...only to be advised by the workers, who were busy processing voters, that turnout was heavy and everything was in order.
But, it would be best to have the liquor cabinet and all the beer chests well iced on the Friday before the Sunday of the election, that being the First day of July, 2018.
One last point. El Universal...a respected, centrist newspaper of record in Mexico City surveyed people immediately after the first debate, earlier this week, and Meade and Anaya tied at 40% each while AMLO was "unimpressive". It may be turning into a repeat of 2006 and 2012. We hope.
El Gringo Viejo
El Gringo Viejo
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